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The Jarrow Turnbull Model is a model used to analyze credit pricing through the examination of interest rates. The Jarrow Turnbull Model uses multi-factor and dynamic interest rates analysis, and incorporates correlations between interest and default rates. It follows that the Jarrow Turnbull Model attempts to identify a pattern between the fluctuations in these interest rates and the probability of default over a specified period. The Jarrow Turnbull Model was created by professors Robert Jarrow and Stuart Turnbull, who published an early version of the Jarrow Turnbull Model in 1993 describing a general methodology for pricing credit and credit-based structures. An extended version of the Jarrow Turnbull Model was published two years later, using historical data to estimate specific parameters in the model. The analysis from the Jarrow Turnbull Model is valuable in that it shows how a credit investment might perform under a different interest rate environment; thus the Jarrow Turnbull Model doesn't assume interest rates stay constant.
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