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Joseph Effect
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| FYI - For 2011, Dow up, Dogs of the Dow up more (double digits) |
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The Joseph Effect is the idea that movements over time follow statistical trends and cycles more than they occur at random. To determine whether a series of movements is random or part of a trend, the Joseph Effect uses the Hurst component: the Joseph Effect observes these movements between the Hurst range of 0 to 1. The Joseph Effect says that movements falling between 0 and 0.5 are larger and more random than normal random movements. The Joseph Effect then says that movements falling between 0.5 and 1 are part of a long-term trend. The time series in the Joseph Effect thus looks like this: 0.5
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