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Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev theorized that capitalist economies move in a large cycle he called a Kondratiev wave. Each Kondratiev Wave lasts 50 to 60 years. A Kondratiev wave consists of a period of strong growth followed by slowing growth. Kondratiev wave theory is based on 19th century price data that also included wages, interest rates and raw material prices. A Kondratiev wave begins with a rising upwave when prices are increasing and the economy is expanding. The upwave ends when rising inflation triggers a recession. Eventually prices stabilize and growth resumes for another decade but at a less robust pace. This downcycle of the Kondratiev wave begins with a market crash that results in prolonged economic depression. Proponents of Kondratiev wave theory note it successfully predicted the 1929 stock market crash based on the 1870 crash. The Kondratiev wave is also referred to as the Kondratiev cycle. |
